![](\"https:\/\/smartcdn.prod.postmedia.digital\/nexus\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/LDN20201203DR001_81537550-scaled-e1607118212473.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=288\")
<\/p>\nNot enough room to safely spread out on buses.<\/p>\n
Teachers fretting about their safety.<\/p>\n
Stressed-out parents at their wits\u2019 end, dealing with kids stuck learning online at home.<\/p>\n
The worries were huge, but everyone knew that learning to live with a plague couldn\u2019t truly begin in Ontario until its nearly two million schoolkids got back into some kind of routine, even if it meant many would have to divide their time between learning online and actually going to school.<\/p>\n
Three months later, the head of the London area\u2019s public school board \u2014 one of Ontario\u2019s largest \u2014 boldly calls its schools \u201cthe safest place to be\u201d for kids amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Some may quibble with that, but the London area\u2019s major school systems have so far avoided the kind of coronavirus disasters that have shut down some schools in Canada, including in parts of Ontario.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
THE BIG PICTURE<\/h3>\n
Between them, the London area\u2019s public and Catholic boards have about 100,000 students and 214 schools. That\u2019s a fraction of Ontario\u2019s nearly 5,000 schools, but the two boards cover a three-county area that runs the gamut from big-city London to small towns and rural areas. If the virus was going to be real trouble in the classroom, there\u2019s no shortage of areas where that might have happened.<\/p>\n St. Thomas Aquinas students leave after their day at school in London, Ont. Photograph taken on Wednesday December 2, 2020. (Mike Hensen\/The London Free Press)<\/span><\/p>\n So far, no school in either board has closed due to the virus and only a fraction of their schools have had positive COVID-19 cases. In the Thames Valley system, coronavirus has surfaced in at least 26 of 161 schools, or about 16 per cent, so far. That compares to at least 10 of 53 schools, or nearly 19 per cent, in the Catholic system.<\/p>\n Elsewhere in Ontario, the virus has reportedly been detected in about one-third of Hamilton schools so far, with problem areas such as the Greater Toronto Area and Ottawa leading the province in daily case counts in schools. Provincewide, as of this week, five schools remained closed and more than 750 \u2014 roughly one in six \u2014 had at least one reported case of COVID-19.<\/p>\n Thames Valley schools \u201care the safest place to be for students,\u201d Mark Fisher, the board\u2019s education director, maintains. And the London region\u2019s top public health doctor doesn\u2019t take issue with that.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n While London area\u2019s two largest school boards so far have seen only two cases of COVID-19 transmission from person to person in schools, more than 40 students or staff have acquired the virus under other circumstances, including while learning at home, Mackie said.<\/p>\n \u201cSchools do appear to be the safe place to be in this region,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n \u201c(But) that is certainly not the case across the province. There are, I believe, over 230 outbreaks in schools in the Toronto area alone. An outbreak being defined as transmission within a school. We\u2019re just not seeing that here.\u201d<\/p>\n It all comes down to how the virus spreads, Mackie said: \u201cIn general, schools do have an advantage, that it seems young people are less likely to transmit the virus.\u201d<\/p>\n Mark Fisher, Director of Education and CEO of Thames Valley District School Board sits at a classroom desk at Eagle Heights public school. (Derek Ruttan\/The London Free Press)<\/span><\/p>\n While Mackie and Fisher tout school safety, at least in this region, not everyone is on board with the idea that schools are relatively safe from COVID-19.<\/p>\n Ryan Imgrund, a York Region biostatistician and high school science teacher who\u2019s been running COVID risk assessments across Ontario, stands firm in his view that \u201cschools are not an indicator of community transmission (of COVID-19), but are . . . driving transmission.\u201d<\/p>\n He points to last month\u2019s nasty outbreak at Windsor\u2019s Frank W. Begley elementary school, which remains closed after several dozen pupils and staff were infected.\u00a0At the time, Windsor was not considered a hot spot for virus spread.<\/p>\n \u201cWhether it be at Begley in Windsor, where they had very few community cases and they found a boatload of cases (in school), or . . . Toronto, where cases were high and they found an even higher number of school cases, schools are definitely driving transmission.\u201d Imgrund argues.<\/p>\n Nine months into the pandemic, grim headlines have taught us all a thing or two about outbreaks:<\/p>\n So far, the two major London-area boards have had one outbreak each: The Thames Valley board\u2019s came this fall at London\u2019s Sir Arthur Currie elementary school; the Catholic board\u2019s this week, with two linked cases in pupils at London\u2019s St. Marguerite d\u2019Youville elementary.<\/p>\n So far, there have been 39 confirmed cases of COVID-19 among staff and students at 26 Thames Valley schools, nothing like the numbers that have hit some boards in Ontario \u2014 or Alberta, where the virus is now such a problem, all high schools have been shut down.<\/p>\n As of Friday, there were nine active cases.<\/p>\n \u201cStatistically, students are more likely to contract COVID-19 in their homes or outside of schools than in schools,\u201d Fisher recently told his board\u2019s trustees.<\/p>\n While COVID-19 transmission rates in the community are clearly a factor, the board credits its success so far to massive summer back-to-school effort to prepare schools and train staff to face the pandemic.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n At the Catholic board, they\u2019ve seen 21 confirmed cases at 10 schools, including the lone outbreak.<\/p>\n \u201cThe bad news is, it was an outbreak,\u201d said education director Linda Staudt. \u201cThe good news is, it was only two students in the same class and that class was already self-isolating at home.\u201d<\/p>\n For all the worry and planning before the school year\u2019s delayed start in September, including whether young children would wear masks, school safeguards are working, Fisher said.<\/p>\n \u201cThe kids are wearing masks, washing their hands, our staff are ensuring physical distancing is being followed \u2014 we are and have been following all those health and safety protocols,\u201d he said, insisting that sticking to the rules has been \u201cthe key to the fact we have only had one transmission.\u201d<\/p>\n In the big picture, COVID numbers for Ontario schools \u2014 the nation\u2019s largest school system \u2014 don\u2019t look bad at all. According to the Education Ministry, about one one-hundredth of a per cent of students and staff have an active case of COVID-19. About three-quarters of the province\u2019s high schools and nearly nine out of 10 elementary schools have no active cases at all. But provincewide, school cases have spiked in recent weeks amid the pandemic\u2019s second wave.<\/p>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n \u201cThat\u2019s way, way above what the general increase in the population is,\u201d said Mehra, who wonders if Ontario has a firm grip on COVID-19 transmission rates.<\/p>\n \u201cIn schools, kids are sharing bathrooms, lunches, buses. There are all kinds of potential places for transmission,\u201d she said. \u201cSo there is a huge difference in the increase in the number of cases and number of outbreaks in schools. That raises red flags.\u201d<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/smartcdn.prod.postmedia.digital\/lfpress\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/1205_LF_COVID_SCHOOLS_81539266.jpg?quality=90&strip=all&w=564&type=webp)
<\/picture>\nTHE NUMBERS<\/h3>\n
THE VIEW FROM THE TOP<\/h3>\n
<\/picture>\nNOT SO FAST: ANOTHER VIEW<\/h3>\n
SCHOOL OUTBREAKS: THE LOWDOWN<\/h1>\n
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CASE COUNTS: THE RAW NUMBERS<\/h3>\n
THE PRECAUTIONS<\/h3>\n
THE OUTLOOK: REASON FOR WORRY<\/h3>\n
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