{"id":15584,"date":"2021-01-02T14:55:56","date_gmt":"2021-01-02T19:55:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ontariohealthcoalition.ca\/?p=15584"},"modified":"2021-01-04T14:58:22","modified_gmt":"2021-01-04T19:58:22","slug":"these-numbers-reveal-a-worrying-trend-in-ontario-long-term-care-home-deaths","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ontariohealthcoalition.ca\/index.php\/these-numbers-reveal-a-worrying-trend-in-ontario-long-term-care-home-deaths\/","title":{"rendered":"These numbers reveal a worrying trend in Ontario long-term-care home deaths"},"content":{"rendered":"

(January 1, 2021)<\/p>\n

By: Jenna Moon & Andrew Bailey, Toronto Star<\/p>\n

\"These<\/p>\n

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Without immediate action and extra interventions to protect residents of Ontario\u2019s long-term-care homes, the next few weeks could mean disaster, experts warn.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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An analysis by the Star of the number of deaths in Ontario\u2019s long-term-care homes is already showing a worrying trend.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The data is the latest to pull back the curtain on the mounting toll\u00a0COVID-19\u00a0<\/a>has taken on care homes, which have been ravaged by the pandemic, exposing systemic and long-standing issues to deadly effect.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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As of Jan. 1, 2,814 residents of the province\u2019s long-term-care homes have died since early last year. .<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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In the past week, the seven-day average of deaths has doubled, new numbers show. The average has tripled since the beginning of December.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cIt\u2019s not that we don\u2019t know what needs to be done. And it\u2019s not that we didn\u2019t learn more about what works (and) what doesn\u2019t work,\u201d said Laura Tamblyn Watts, CEO of seniors\u2019 advocacy group CanAge.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cThe challenge has been the lag time in implementing those needed changes in Ontario \u2014 that has been fundamentally the problem.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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There were 194 long-term-care homes reporting active outbreaks on Dec. 28, more than at any point during the pandemic\u2019s first wave. Outbreaks were still hovering at 187, according to the province\u2019s ast update on Dec. 30<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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So far, the pandemic\u2019s early onslaught has still proven most deadly.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Of all deaths, nearly 70 per cent came during the first wave between March and Aug. 31, according to a Star analysis.<\/p>\n

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It\u2019s possible that there have been fewer deaths since then because those with stronger immune systems who weathered the first wave are likely to also survive the second, said Colin Furness, an infection control epidemiologist and assistant professor at the University of Toronto.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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It\u2019s also hard to compare the waves, he said, because \u201cso much is different,\u201d including what we\u2019ve learned about the virus and how to treat it.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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But, he noted, there\u2019s still a chance the second wave will prove just as deadly.<\/p>\n

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\u201cEither a long-term-care home is somehow able to keep COVID out, or it gets in \u2014 and then it wreaks havoc,\u201d Furness said. \u201cIf more long-term-care homes end up getting outbreaks, then we\u2019re going to see those numbers pop right back up.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Ashleigh Tuite, an epidemiologist with the Dalla Lana School of Public Health, agreed.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cI think over the coming weeks, we should expect more deaths, given how many cases are occurring right now, in long-term-care homes,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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In its Dec. 31 data update, the government reported 1,186 active cases among residents and an additional 1,050 in long-term-care workers. The cumulative number of cases in long-term care breaks down fairly equally between the first and second waves.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Vaccinations could help mitigate the situation before it becomes too dire, all three experts said, noting that the province needs to move much faster to immunize patients as well as health-care workers.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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\u201cIt would take time for vaccines to provide protection amongst people who have been vaccinated, but it\u2019s a tool we have now that we didn\u2019t have in the first wave,\u201d Tuite said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Last week, the executive director of the Ontario Health Coalition called for the military to once again be sent into this province\u2019s long-term-care homes.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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A testing backlog and poor enforcement have contributed to an increase of infections and deaths in long-term-care homes, said Natalie Mehra.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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The province has to date insisted it is doing all it can to fight back COVID-19\u2019s second wave.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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In November, the government\u00a0promised<\/a>\u00a0to establish a new \u201cgold\u201d standard for care homes in the province by 2024, ensuring residents four hours of care per day. Weeks later it issued a directive stipulating those working or volunteering in care homes must take regular COVID tests.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Critics say these measures don\u2019t go far enough, calling current staffing levels a crisis. Earlier in December, the coalition released a survey of 88 staff in dozens of long-term-care homes experiencing outbreaks. Sixty-four per cent of those surveyed said they did not have adequate staffing.<\/p>\n

Click here for original article<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(January 1, 2021) By: Jenna Moon & Andrew Bailey, Toronto Star Without immediate action and extra interventions to protect residents of Ontario\u2019s long-term-care homes, the next few weeks could mean disaster, experts warn. An analysis by the Star of the number of deaths in Ontario\u2019s long-term-care homes is already showing a worrying trend. 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